It was recently announced by the Royal Navy that the internationally respected position of Flag Officer Sea Training (FOST) is to be discontinued. The new position is one rank lower (Commodore) and in an intelligent bit of branding, to be called Commander Fleet Operational Sea Training. So still FOST, basically.

The response to this across the twittersphere was classically resigned. “It doesn’t matter” and “it’s happened before and the sky didn’t fall in” being typical.

I wonder though. Does rank dilution matter or not?

To answer this, I’m going to start with a base assumption:

The more senior the person is in a position the more experience they have and, based on the selection requirements for higher rank, the more capable they will be.

Now, I will concede that this is quite an assumption, especially the second half. We have all seen junior officers who knock spots off their superiors. Conversely there have been 2*s over the years whose thick stripe has felt like a tailoring error (no disrespect). But on average, assuming a functioning promotion system and when reviewed across branches, ranks and years, this assumption must be true.

In which case, the only reason rank dilution wouldn’t matter was if the wrong level was set in the first place or had become wrong over time.

Looking at the table below, there are certainly a number of positions that fall into that second category. A 4* Second Sea Lord and Commander in Chief Fleet being two good examples. In fact, size and shape of the top of the pyramid feels about right just now but beneath that there has been significant rank dilution over the years. Here are some of the ones I can remember (since 1990) – I am sure there are many others:

Senior Command

Position	Was	Now	Date	Remarks
Fleet Commander	4*	3*	2012	Was Commander In Chief
Second Sea Lord	4*	3*	2005
Flag Officer Scotland	3*	2*	c. 1996
Commandant General Royal Marines	3*	2*	1998

Establishment Command

Position	Was	Now	Date	Remarks
Training establishment captains	Scale A Captain**	1* now 1st/2nd tour Captain	1998	Dartmouth, Raleigh, Collingwood, Sultan
Admiralty Interview Board	1*	Commander	u/k

Waterfront Command

Position	Was	Now	Date	Remarks
Flag Officer Sea Training	2*	1*	2000	Now Commander Fleet Operational Sea Training
Flag Officer Flotillas	3 x 2*	1 x 1* and 2 x Captain	c. 1995	Devflot demoted to Captain ‘20

Sea Command

Position	Was	Now	Date	Remarks
Aircraft carrier Captain	Scale A Captain	1st/2nd tour Captain	2020	Was always second sea command as a Captain
P2000 Captain	Senior Lt/Lt Cdr	Second tour Lt	c. 2000

Joint

Position	Was	Now	Date	Remarks
Chief of Defence Staff	5*	4*	1997
Director Defence Medical Services	3*	2*	1990s
Director Plans	1* (per service)	Single 1*	2010s

Discontinued

Position	Was	Now	Date	Remarks
CINC Naval Home Command	4*	N/A		Discontinued
Deputy Fleet Commander	3*	N/A		Discontinued

Merged/double-hatted

Position	Was	Now	Date	Remarks
Flag Officer Submarines	3*	2*		There are quite a few in this category that have been either discontinued or double/treble hatted
Flag Officer Naval Aviation	2*	2*		There are quite a few in this category that have been either discontinued or double/treble hatted

Other than having a job set at a certain level to optimise output, there are other factors that determine the rank of a position:

• Legacy (‘it’s always been that way’)
• To support the overall branch pyramid and structure
• To achieve parity with the other services
• To achieve parity/credibility with other navies

All of these are fluid and it is therefore right that the associated ranks are periodically reviewed.

The first problem is that this is rarely the driver for change. Instead, it is more usually a desire to save money, either to pay for something else or to ingratiate individuals or ‘the system’ to the MoD. It often happens prior to a defence review or to bolster an individual’s pitch for promotion.

The second problem is finding evidence that either of these have ever been successful. But, because the initiatives come from the top and are (outwardly) to save money, woe betide anyone who objects – hence the pavlovian insistence that it doesn’t really matter.

This isn’t supposed to be an inter-service dig, and I have no evidence to support it, but the Army does seem to lag when it comes to its own dilution resulting in some headline differences, the Commandant of Sandhurst still being a 2* whilst the head of Dartmouth is ‘just’ a Captain perhaps being the most obvious.

Inter service parity is important here especially as overall numbers shrink and competition for the key Joint jobs becomes ever more fierce. Falling in line with the Army’s use of the Brigadier was one of the reasons the Navy substantiated the rank of Commodore in 1997. Add the dilution going on just now to the 20year cycle that these things seem to follow then add a splash of “nothing is sacred right now” and I’ll put a small wager that Commodore will be abandoned again in the next few years. This will be badged as a way of saving money but in reality will just create chaos at Joint selection boards.

In sum, will the Navy be thanked for its current diluting (and culling) at the next Defence Review? I doubt it. Meanwhile, the axe continues to fall and everybody says it’s fine.

I’ll finish with a thought experiment. If one extrapolates the argument that rank dilution doesn’t really matter, why not have all frigates, destroyers and submarines commanded by Lieutenant Commanders?

Postscript. There is a different-but-linked debate to be had about the overall number of ranks (often reckoned to be too high). This is nicely captured in this Wavell Room article written in 2018.